UPDATED! 3/12, 9:55 AM More Bracketology!! 5th Update!!!

Originally Posted
2011-03-10

34 Hours…

3/12/11 11:31 AM

Wow, I need to get more sleep.  I forgot Indiana State among the auto bids.  They are in automatically.  That takes away another bid

 

My last 6 out are now…

 

Alabama

Georgia

UTEP/Memphis loser
Boston College
USC
Missouri State

 

3/12/11 10:18 AM

WHOOPS!  I need to correct an error.  I forgot to include George Mason as an automatic big.  That puts Alabama on the outside looking in.  I hate to have Georgia as one of the last team in over a team they lost to yesterday…but that Bama strength of schedule is weak.  They are kinda like Virginia Tech from 2010…and Virginia Tech didn’t make the field in 2010.  Mason a lock.  Bama is out

 

 

9:55AM

Apologies to anyone who tried to make sense of that blog last night.  I can honestly say I wasn’t drunk…so many things going on at once and I clearly couldn’t handle it.  Now I’ll make it right by trying to make sense of things with a day and a half left before the committee does their thing.  Things became a little more clear last night.  I’ll break it down the way I have been going.

AUTO BIDS – 13
Old Dominion (CAA)
Butler (Horizon)
Oakland (Summit)
Belmont (Atlantic SUn)
Gonzaga (WCC)
Long Island (NEC)
Morehead State (OVC)
Bucknell (Patriot)
St Peter’s (MAAC)
Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
Wofford (Southern)
UNC Asheville (Big South)
Arkansas Little Rock (Sun Belt)

AUTOBIDS TO BE CLINCHED TODAY FROM (probably) ONE BID CONFERNCES – 8
America East (BU vs Stony Brook)
Ivy League (Harvard vs Princeton)
WAC (Boise State vs Utah State – Utah State will be in win or lose…they SHOULD win)
MEAC (Morgan State vs Hampton)
Southland (McNeese St vs. Texas-San Antonio)
SWAC (Grambling St vs. Alabama St)
MAC (Akron vs Kent State)
Big West (Long Beach St vs UC-Santa Barbara)

MAJOR CONFERENCE LOCKS
A-10 – 2 – Xavier, Temple
Bubble – Richmond
Notes – Dayton could throw a wrench in this whole thing.  They upset Xavier, which in and of itself I don’t think really gets them too much of an at large chance, but it does get them in the semi’s against St Joes who has pulled two big upsets.  Either way, one team that right now ISNT in the field WILL play in the championship game.  If one of them upsets Richmond or Temple then one bubble team will be sent home.  Richmond looks pretty good right now.  A win against Temple would leave them without a doubt of getting in.

ACC – 4 – Duke, UNC, Florida State, Virginia Tech
Bubble – Boston College, Clemson
Notes – HOLY CRAP!  Did anybody see the end of the Florida State Va-Tech game last night?  Florida State hit the game winner only to have it waived off after review with the ball on the tips of Erick Green’s fingers when the clock hit 00.0.  That milli second difference gave Virginia Tech a HUGE sigh of relief.  I think Seth Greenberg’s team is IN.  Florida State shouldn’t have anything to worry about.  Entering yesterday, BC definitely had a better resume than Clemson, but the Tigers SMOKED the Eagles.  I entered yesterday thinking BC was in either way, but they lost so bad that they may be left out tomorrow.

BIG 12 – 5 – Kansas, K-State, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri
Bubble – 1 – Colorado
Notes – If there is a bubble team, it’s Colorado.  I think they are in, but I’m going to put them on the bubble, because a lot of bubble teams helped themselves yesterday.  All in all this is a pretty easy conference to figure out

BIG EAST – 10 – Pitt, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Louisville, St Johns, UConn, Cincy, WYU, G’Town, Nova
Bubble – Marquette
Notes – Marquette is basically in the same boat as Colorado.  I don’t think they have anything to worry about, but lets put them on the bubble just for right now

BIG TEN – 3 – Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Bubble – Illinois, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State
Notes – Ok, realistically, Michigan and Michigan State locked up bids yesterday.  Penn State put themselves in a much better spot by beating Wisconsin.  They play Michigan State today.  This has become arguably the most confusing conference, because you could make arguments for all 7 of these teams.  Of the four bubble teams, Illinois entered yesterday with the only RPI under 40 (39), but they took the biggest hit with each of the other three teams picking up big wins.  The Michigan State-Penn State winner today is absolutely and undeniably in the tournament.  Michigan State should be in regardless, and Penn State has to be 50/50 at worst even with a loss.

CONFERENCE USA – 0 locks
Bubble – UTEP, UAB, Memphis
Notes – UTEP and Memphis go head to head today for an auto bid.  If it weren’t for the Big Ten having such a HUGE day yesterday I’d think there was a good chance all three of these teams get in.  I think they still get two, and three isn’t toally out of the question.  Just not counting on it.  Losing to ECU really hurt UAB, but they still have a great RPI.  I think they have a good shot.

MOUNTAIN WEST – 3 – BYU, SDSU, UNLV
Bubble – ehhhhh nobody really.  Colorado State is kinda screwed.  I’ll put em here but lets be real
Notes – Colorado State is doubtful

PAC 10 – 3 – Washington, UCLA, Arizona
Bubble – USC – I don’t know about USC, but according to Joe Lunardi they are one of the last teams in.

SEC – 3 – Florida, Vandy, Kentucky
Bubble – Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama
Notes – Alabama win yesterday was HUGE. Tennessee could have sealed a bid but they faded against Florida.  This is another tough conference.  if Bama wins one more today against Kentucky in the SEC semis they should have nothing to worry about.

TOTAL BIDS – 54
Lets start with the near locks…
55. Conference USA auto bid
56. Michigan State
57. Marquette
58. Colorado
59. Michigan
60. Tennessee
61. Clemson
62. UAB
63. Penn State
64. Illinois
65. St Marys
66. Richmond
67. Georgia
68. Alabama

Last 4 out…
UTEP/Memphis loser
Boston College
USC
Missouri State

There are a couple of teams that could throw a wrench in things for everybody.

Boise State…If they beat Utah State today, they get an automatic bid.  Win or lose, Utah State is dancing next week, so that would mean one less bubble spot available.

Dayton…Technically St Joes could be here too…the winner of that game will play in the A-10 final against a team who will had a bid locked up, win or lose.  If Dayton wins today and then beats Temple tomorrow, they could steal Richmond’s spot

Princeton…to a much smaller degree, because if Harvard loses today they COULD POSSIBLY get an at large bid.  I’d say 50/50 at best (and that might be generous)  If Princeton loses today they are NIT bound.

I’m heading to New York to spend the weekend with the girlfriend.  She’s got a huge test to study for, so I’m going to TRY and do one final update tomorrow and finalize my picks.  I wanted to do it with seeds and everything, but that may be a little ambitious.

As for 1 seeds, Kansas and Ohio State are locks.  I think Duke gets one as well.  The last one probably goes to a Big East Team or SDSU if they win tonight believe it or not.  Notre Dame probably has the inside track on Pitt.  Until next time…hopefully…

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3/11

9:02 PM  Ok, what a day/night it’s been in college hoops!  I’m living the dream right now.  I’m sitting on my couch with my boy Reddick on the other one, and apparently the smokeshow is on her way over to drink and watch hoops.  WOW!!!!  SYRACUSE!!!! JARDINE!!!!! TIE BALL GAME!!!!!

I’m telling you this has been a phenomenal evening.  I came home with a six pack of Magic Hat Circus Boy, made some penne with vodka sauce and I’ve been on my ass watching hoops ever since.  Reddick got home a little after 8:00 and here we are.  UConn has the ball with 4.6 left by the way. Turnover!!  Kemba Walker is ridiculous.  0.6 seconds left.  Looks like overtime.  I’ll get back to that shortly

9:06 PM  Lets recap the day…3 bubble teams with RPIs between 39-45 lost…Illinois fell to Michigan, Georgia choked one away to Bama and BC got SMOKED by Clemson.  Before today I would have said all three of those teams were in…what??  THe Bruins are DOWN with 12 minutes left?  It was 2-0 at one point!  Lame.  Back to college hoops.  I still like Illinois’ chances to make the tourney despite the loss.  Georgia and BC are likely each going to be one of the last two in or out, which means best case scenario is one of the at large play in games…

As for the winners, I think Michigan is good to go.  That’s a team that finished strong and came up with a big win in the Big Ten tourney.  If not for a lucky bank shot buzzer beater by Wisconsin late in the regular season we’re not even having this conversation.

Alabama and Clemson both came up with big wins.  I think if they both lose next game, Clemson is about 75/25 and Bama is 55/45…both in decent shape.  The only problem is that Michigan State basically locked up spot by beating Purdue and Tennessee was locked up with FLorida at last look.  A win would clinch for them too.

 

9:12 PM – Ok, Tennessee is down 6.  Plenty of time left, but that may be getting away from them.  CJ Fair to the line for Syracuse and he MISSED the front end…70-70…how about the free throw differential?  UCOnn 20/26, Cuse 4/9?!  UConn up 2 with 1:45 left.  Going to a mid major school I learned to hate UConn so I’m pulling for the Orange.  Two Circus Boy’s left…I’ll wait 5-10 mins and crack another.  Unfortunately I gotta do my drinking early tonight.  I gotta be up at 5:50 to do sportsflashes.  GREAT BLOCK BY FAIR!!!

 

9:14 PM – Joseph going to the line for 2.  Oriake fouled out.  50.8 left.  Eat it Reddick.  Lowell boy is done.

A couple of game sto update.  Kansas finished Colorado, but I think the BUffalos have done enough to get in…Joseph missed the first…and Duke beat my sister’s Terps.  It appeared to be a good ass whooping by the score, but it was close until about the 6 minute mark.  GOod effort Maryland.  72-71 UConn…dammit 74-71 20 seconds left…

Jardine…awful shot.  UConn going to the foul like.  THis thing is friggen over.  Is UConn really going to run the table and win five straight for the Big East Final?  I’m hoping not

9:17 PM _Douchebag Kemba Walker makes it a 2 possession game with 13 seconds left…32 points 12 boards and 5 dimes????  33 points???  What the hell.  Jardine misses again  Syracuse wins 76-71.  Unreal.  Lets see what other games I can find…plus need a bathroom break and another beer.  Hey The Smokeshow is here!  SHe informs me that the Celtics lost I don’t care…holy crap she doesn’t know how to use a bottle opener.  Be right back

9:23 PM – Bruins are 3:10 away from losing in regulation to the f***ing Islanders…wow thats bad.  OK…March Madness  Holy crap!!!  Penn State is beating Wisconsin 18-2!  Penn State is a team that COULD get into the tournament with 2 wins.  I don’t think beating Wisconsin alone gets in done.  Gives them an outside chance, but I think they need two wins…wow I’m not even drunk, there’s just so much going on (it takes more than 5 beers)  I might need to revisit this tomorrow.

9:28 PM Bruins give up the empty netter and lost their 4th in a row.  This team is such a rollercoaster ride.  Ugh.  Moving on

 

A few quick notes…

-Memphis beat ECU, but they were supposed to win that.  They are going to the conference finals against UTEP.  I think Conference USA might get 3 bids.  UAB, UTEP and Memphis all look pretty good.  UTEP beat Tulsa today

-Michigan State beating Purdue, Michigan beating Illinois and the possibility of 3 C-USA teams is bad for the Princeton/Harvard loser tomorrow.  If Princeton loses they have NO CHANCE.  Harvard has a shot at an at large but they won’t be able to rest easy going into Selection Sunday if they lose tomorrow.

9:35 PM – I wanted to do a full bracketology tonight but I am so not focused, there are lots of games left to go and I can’t stay up all night having to work so early and then drive to NY to see the lady.  I’ll do a full update in the morning.

By the way, with the bubble growing, things are getting tougher for Missouri State.  Cleveland State can pretty much wait for the NIT selection show.

10:07 PM

-Florida finished off Tennessee.  I think the Vols are still going to get in, but there is a little doubt with that loss.

-Jimmer is going OFF.  33 points at the half?!?!  What?!?!  New Mexico is still hanging close

-ESPN just showed Kemba Walker and Bill Clinton taking a picture together at MSG.  Reddick had a great question.  Who asked for that picture?  Bill or Kemba?  By guess is Bill

-Rhode Island leads Richmond with 15 minutes left by two points.  Richmond MIGHT need that win to get in

-USC is hanging close with Arizona.  If USC wins they go the the Pac 10 championship.  I don’t think they are getting an at large with if they get the WIldcats out, they are just one win away against Oregon or Washington.  If Oregon and USC win tonight, one bubble team is SCREWED.

10:13PM

Ok, I’m going to drink my last beer and go to bed.  I’m going to take all this jumbled information and turn it into a coherent bracketology tomorrow morning.  Good night everybody.

 

You know what time it is!  The selection committee makes their final decision in about 80 hours but there are lots of games to be played in the meantime.  Let’s update where we are now…

AUTOBIDS – 12

Belmont

Gonzaga

Old Dominion

St. Peter’s
Northern Colorado

Wofford

UNC Asheville

Oakland

Arkansas Little Rock

Long Island

Morehead State

Indiana State

ONE BID CONFERENCES YET TO FINISH TOURNEY – 9

America East – Stonybrook or BU

Big West

IVY – Harvard/Princeton loser goes to the bubble

MAC

MEAC

Patriot – Bucknell or Lafayette

Southland

SWAC

WAC – If Utah State loses this will be a two bid conference.  For now lets assume they win

MAJOR CONFERENCES…and top Mid Major Conference locks

ATLANTIC 10

Locks – 2 – Xavier, Temple

Bubble – Richmond

Notes – Richmond needs to beat URI.  If they can beat Temple and go to the A-10 finals they should become a lock.

ACC

Locks – 2 – Duke, UNC

Bubble – Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Boston College

Notes – The only reason Florida State really isn’t a lock yet is because there are so many bubble teams.  If BC and VT both make improbably runs to the ACC title game, FSU is the 5th team from that conference…that would make them sweat a little bit.  I think they’re in, but I’m not quite ready to, as Denny Green said, “crown their ass”

BIG 12

Locks – 5 – Kansas, Texas, K-State, Texas A&M, Mizzou

Bubble – Colorado, Baylor, Oklahoma State

Notes – Oklahoma is really only a serious bubble team if they take down Kansas today.  Baylor likely blew their chance losing to Oklahoma yesterday.  Colorado has a legit chance.  If they beat K-State today I have to believe they are in.

BIG EAST

Locks – 11 – Pitt, Notre Dame, Cuse, G’Town, St Johns, Louis, UConn, Cincy, WVU, Nova, Marquette

Notes – Marquette likely locked their spot beating West Virginia last night.  Villanova has gone into a free fall and if any team from the conference gets an omission it would be shocking, but it would be one of those two.

BIG TEN

Locks – 3 – Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Bubble – Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Illinois

Notes – This tourney hasn’t started so nothing really has changed since my Tuesday update.  Michigan-Illinois winner should be in. Penn State definitely needs two wins, Michigan State probably needs two wins…it starts today.

CONFERENCE USA

Locks – UAB

Bubble – Memphis, UTEP, Southern Miss, Marshall, Tulsa

Notes – All six teams play today in the quarters…I can’t see UAB getting left out, but just for some extra assurance they may want to take care of business against East Carolina today.  The Memphis, Southern Miss loser is likely out.  Tulsa needs at least two wins, starting with Rice today…they may need to win the conference.  Marshall needs to beat UTEP to get in.  UTEP probably has the best resume after UAB, but if they lose to Marshall I could see them getting left out.  A win in this game is probably all they need.  I think this conference gets at least two bids.  Three is not out of the question

MOUNTAIN WEST

Locks – 3 – BYU, SDSU, UNLV

Bubble – Colorado State

Notes – It’s not looking good for the Rams.  They need to beat New Mexico and BYU to have a shot…that MAY do it, but then against beating BYU is suddenly less impressive without Davies on the team.  Two wins gets them in the discussion, but it might take a conference title to dance

PAC 10

Locks – 2 – UCLA, Arizona

Bubble – USC, Washington, California

Notes – Cal is the longest of long shots, but I added them to the bubble because of the way the PAC bracket lines up.  They play USC today.  Winner isn’t in but stays alive.  Next they likely have to play Arizona…a win would probably be necessary there.  Getting to the championship and beating Arizona to do it makes a decent case.  I have Washington “on the bubble”, but really I like their chances.  Just take care of Washington State today and there is nothing to worry about

SEC

Locks – 3 – Florida, Kentucky, Vandy

Bubble – Georgia, Tennessee, Bama

Notes – Nothing has really changed here either since Tuesday.  UGA needs to beat Auburn and Tennessee needs to beat Arkansas.  A Georgia win over Auburn sets up a stay alive game for Georgia and Bama…I don’t want to say play in, because it would leave no guarantees…well…it might for Georgia.  If Tennessee beats Arkansas they get Florida.  If they win that, they are in.

 

TOTAL BIDS COUNTINING CONFERENCE CHAMPS, ONE CONFERENCE BIDS WITHOUT A CHAMP YET AND BIG TIME LOCKS:  53

 

Another lock:

54.  George Mason (CAA), lost to VCU in conference semis…they are still dancing.

 

Now starting with the teams I’m most positive about, here are the last 14 bids out of the “bubble” teams

 

55.  Washington

56.  Florida State

57.  Colorado

58.  Michigan/Illinois Winner

59.  Boston College

60.  Georgia

61.  Virginia Tech

62.  Richmond

63.  Memphis

64.  St. Marys

65.  Tennessee

 

Three bids left and this is where it gets tough…If Illinois loses to Michigan I think they still get one of the last 2-3 spots…Michigan losing, I’m not so sure.  Same with Harvard.  They could lose and maybe get an at large, but Princeton needs to win to get in.  I think Harvard is going to win (because it will ruin my two vacation days for tourney watching…I’ll have to fill in and do sportsflashes, so Murphy’s Law, I’m not going to use an at large on Harvard since I think they get the Ivy auto.  I also think Illinois is going to beat MIchigan…ok 3 spots left

66.  Missouri State

67.  Clemson

68.  Michigan

 

Last few out…

69.  Michigan State

70.  UTEP

71.  Alabama

72.  Colorado State

73.  Cleveland State

74.  Cal/USC winner

75.  Oklahoma State

76.  Baylor

77.  Marshall/Southern Miss

A lot of things could clear up before the afternoon is over.  Don’t be shocked if I post another update today.  I’m hooked!!!

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